Hurricane Ida hits Nicaragua
Hurricane Ida intensified at one of the fastest rates on record, and plowed ashore this morning in central Nicaragua as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. It took just 24 hours from when the first advisory was issued for Tropical Depression Eleven until Ida reached hurricane strength. Since reliable satellite measurements began in 1970, Hurricane Humberto holds the record for fastest intensification from first advisory issued to hurricane strength--18 hours. (Actually, Humberto did the feat in 14 1/4 hours, but this was rounded off to 18 hours in the final data base, which stores points every six hours). There have been six storms that accomplished the feat in 24 hours--Hurricane Florence of 2000, Hurricane Erin of 1995, Hurricane Bonnie of 1992, Hurricane Earl of 1986, Hurricane Kate of 1985, and Hurricane Kendra of 1978. Ida now joins that short list of rapidly intensifying storms.
Ida will dump very heavy rains of 10 - 15 inches over northern Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras over the next two days, which will likely make it the deadliest storm of the 2009 hurricane season. However, Ida is a relatively small storm, and has not tapped the Pacific Ocean as a source of moisture. I think the NHC forecast of 15 - 20 inches of rain is overdone. The greatest rainfall disasters in Honduras history--caused by Hurricane Fifi of 1974 and Hurricane Mitch of 1998--were caused because these were large storms that were able to pull in moisture from both the Atlantic and Pacific. Ida will not approach these disasters in magnitude.
Figure 1. Microwave "weather radar in space" image of Ida at landfall this morning, at 6:17 am EST. Image credit Navy Research Lab, Monterey.
The forecast for Ida
Ida will likely spend a full two days over Nicaragua and Honduras, and there is a chance that Ida will dissipate. The HWRF and ECMWF don't show much surviving of Ida after crossing into the Western Caribbean. However, the other models like Ida's chances of surviving, and it is the case that the storm's core will be tracking over relatively low elevation land (Figure 2), increasing the chances that Ida can survive the crossing intact. If Ida survives the crossing and emerges into the Western Caribbean on Saturday, moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and warm waters await it, and some modest strengthening is likely. A trough of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico this weekend should be able to propel Ida northwards into the Gulf of Mexico. The long-term fate of Ida if it reaches the Gulf of Mexico is hard to guess at this point, though the odds are against Ida hitting the U.S. as a hurricane, due to high wind shear.
Figure 2. Projected track from the 10am EST NHC advisory from Thursday, 11/05/09, overlaid on a topographical map of Central America. Image credit: Wikipedia.
Looking at the past to predict the future
Perhaps the best way to estimate the chances of Ida surviving the crossing of Nicaragua and Honduras is to look at past storms that have followed similar tracks, to see if they dissipated or not. History favors Ida surviving the crossing. The two best analogue storms occurred in 1906 and 1908. Hurricane Eight of October 10, 1906, hit Nicaragua as a Category 3 hurricane, spent two days over land, weakening to a tropical storm, then emerged into the Western Caribbean and re-intensified into a Category 3 hurricane that hit Cuba and South Florida. On the other hand, Hurricane Nine of October 18, 1908, which hit Nicaragua as a Category 2 hurricane, dissipated after spending 1.5 days over land. Three other weaker systems have followed paths similar to Ida's, and all survived the crossing and re-intensified once over the Western Caribbean. Tropical Storm Gert of 1993 hit as a 40 mph tropical storm, spent two days over land, and survived to re-intensify to a tropical storm before hitting the Yucatan Peninsula. Hurricane Alma of June 1996 hit Nicaragua as a tropical depression, spent two days over land, and survived. Alma later intensified into a major Category 3 hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Storm Six of 1940 hit Nicaragua as a 45 mph tropical storm, spent 1.5 days over land, and survived the crossing. So, of the five storms to follow a path similar to Ida's projected path, four survived to re-intensify over the Western Caribbean.
I'll have an update Friday morning.
Jeff Masters
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I measured 43.4 degrees here at my home.
I just wanted to point that out.
Have a good day folks!
I measured 43.4 degrees here at my home.
I just wanted to point that out.
Have a good day folks!
7:00 AM EST Fri Nov 6
Location: 14.6°N 84.2°W
Max sustained: 35 mph
Moving: N at 6 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb
HMMMM? How might this play out every model except wrong-way NOGAPS sends this into our basin. The CMC is the only one I'd seen till now to do this.
Michelle 01 Nov 2001
Ida 06 Nov 2009
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
WOW, Ida is about to emerge
Sure has a similar look, thats for sure.
HPC Preliminary Forecast Discussion
CURRENT T.D. IDA IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO TROPICAL STORM
STATUS AS IT TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE NWRN
CARIBBEAN DURING THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD. MANUAL FCST REPRESENTS
INTERPOLATION FROM THE 03Z TPC ADVISORY... WITH DAYS 5-7
EXTRAPOLATION ACCOUNTING FOR CONSENSUS THAT INDICATES HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE ERN CONUS/NRN GULF SHOULD EVENTUALLY
SUPPRESS THE SYSTEM AND FORCE IT WWD.
HPC Preliminary Graphics
Memories... Lol.
Stormw - What about an Annular Hurricane? I thought those were a little shear resistant?
ULD....
Definitely, I do believe NHC will be changing those (D)epression and (S)torm symbols in the track to (H)urricane rather quickly.
Ya know, Ida and the blob are starting to look alike. Is the ULD good for development?
In terms of track Guidance with storms I have tracked...Ida is up there on my list. The storm did not went too far inland and it did not move due north from the SW Caribbean. That is a personal best.
Yes.
Thanks. I'm still getting this straight. :)
Looks like it's spinning to me.
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO
THE WESTERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC IN SOUTHERN MEXICO. UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE WEST OF 85W. A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GALE-FORCE WIND
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
This morning, the BOC disturbance looks about the best in organization as it has all week and it looks as low pressure is starting to gather in that region. It appears that it will influence IDA in a signicant manner in the coming days.
New coordinates place it at 14.6N.
A deep layer hybrid system developing over the W GOM over the next few days may help propel Ida more towards the north and slightly right of the NHC forecast track, which I think will continue to shift.
morning
there is a modest chance of rapid intensification during the next 4 days.
EXTENDED...ALL EYES WILL BE ON IDA AS SHE IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA EARLY SAT WITH SOME
RESTRENGTHENING POSSIBLE ACCORDING TO CURRENT THINKING. GIVEN THE
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH IDA AS SHE MAKES HER PLAY ON THE GULF
OF MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE LOCAL EXTENDED FORECAST IS
SOMEWHAT UP IN THE AIR. TUE MORN SHOULD FIND IDA MOVING TOWARD THE
OPEN WATERS OF THE GULF. THE GFS FAVORS A TRACK TENDENCY WHICH
APPROACHES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING WED WITH A TIGHTENING
GRADIENT AND MOSITURE INCREASE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING
TUE. THIS IS AN AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION...WHICH COULD FURTHER SUPPORT
ONGOING LOCAL MARINE HAZARDS...ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SOME
HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. IN CONTRAST...THIS IS NOT
EXACTLY HOW THE ECMWF SEES IT AS IT KEEPS IDA (REMNANTS/MOISTURE)
LESS ORGANIZED AND FARTHER WEST...UNTIL A SHORT WAVE SNATCHES HER
UP TO ADVECT SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION BY WED.
THUS...A BLENDED SOLUTION IS PREFERRED AND IS MORE IN LINE WITH
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ANYWAY. CONSEQUENTLY...PRUDENCE DEMANDS AN
INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES AND A SOMEWHAT STIFFENING OF THE WIND
FIELD TO SET UP THE TREND. BY WED...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED
TO BE DRAPED ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA WITH BULLISH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERSPREADING THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL WORK TO KEEP IDA
SHUNTED SOUTH AND FROM ACQUIRING LATITUDE. THE COMMON SENSE THEME
IS A STIFF AND CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW.
BTW, Ida is the first and only system to develop in the Caribbean this year.
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