Nor'easter poised to dump heavy snows; Australian tropical cyclone season heats up
A developing low pressure system along the North Carolina coast will intensify today and move northeast towards Cape Cod, Massachusetts, bringing heavy rain and snow to the mid-Atlantic and New England. A swath of 6 - 10" of snow is expected over inland regions of New England, from Philadelphia to Boston. A storm surge of up to 2.5' is expected along the Massachusetts coast, which will cause mostly minor coastal flooding, but considerable erosion damage.
The 1.9" of snow that fell in Hartford, Connecticut yesterday brought that city's January snowfall total to 44.9", a new record for the month. With an additional 6 - 10 inches expected today, Hartford will surpass its record for snowiest month of all-time, the 45.3" that fell in December 1945.
The storm brought heavy rains of 1 - 3 inches to much of the Southeast yesterday, easing that region's La Niña-related drought. The low swept a cold front across Florida last night, bringing severe thunderstorms with damaging winds gusts of up to 75 mph to twenty locations in the state. One tornado was reported, but no significant damage was reported.
Figure 1. The cold front from today's Nor'easter swept across Florida last night, bringing a line of severe thunderstorms that spawned one tornado and numerous reports of damaging winds.
Tropical Cyclone activity heats up near Australia
The year's first Category 4 tropical cyclone is Tropical Cyclone Wilma, which is churning the waters near Tonga in the Southern Hemisphere with sustained winds of 135 mph (minimum Category 4 strength.) Wilma passed over American Samoa as a strong tropical storm, and hit Tonga as a Category 3 storm. Substantial damage has been reported on Tonga, but no deaths or injuries. Wilma is recurving out to sea, and will not affect Australia.
Australia is keeping an eye on Tropical Cylone Bianca, which is expected to skirt the northwest coast of the country over the next few days. Of much greater concern for Australia are two potential tropical cyclones that could hit the flood-ravaged state of Queensland next week. Both the European Center and GFS models predict that the remains of Tropical Cyclone Anthony will regenerate into a tropical storm late this week and hit Queensland early next week. A second and potentially more powerful storm is forecast to form next week in the islands to the east of Australia, and threaten Queensland at the end of the week. This is potentially terrible news for Australia, which is attempting to recover from record floods. As reported in the latest Bureau of Meteorology climate statement and flood summary, the past four months (September - December) have been the rainiest such period in Queensland's history, and the resulting flooding disaster has been Australia's most expensive natural disaster in history.
Figure 2. Tropical Cyclone Wilma, the globe's first major tropical cyclone of 2011, as seen at 01:45 GMT on January 26. 2011 by NASA's Aqua satellite. Image credit: NASA.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Nadi, Fiji has the decision to retire names as far as I know.
I see, thanks for the clarification!
We had several hours of torrential rain here this morning in connection with the system Doc M. discussed in today's blog. It seems really strange to have several inches of water settled on the ground in January; usually January is our driest month.
Bianca is part of the Australian region naming lists, and Wilma is one of the Fiji region naming lists. Two different regions named them.
I would, however, like to sing the praises of NoScript plus Firefox. NoScript is a bit of a pain to set up initially, but it's amazingly good at keeping internet nasties out of your computer. It's also a wonderful educational tool. And it's FREE!
For example, you go to a website and click a button that you've always mindlessly clicked in the past, and suddenly NoScript stops it from working. Next, you grumble, "Stupid NoScript!" -- and then you ask yourself, "What is that button *really* going to do to my machine?" Hmm. If you decide that you can trust the website, you tell NoScript to whitelist it and continue on your merry way. But if you're not sure about the website... well, maybe you'd better not click there. After you've been using NoScript for a while, you realize that it's pretty darned smart after all.
A second bonus of NoScript is that many websites load faster. The ugly and potentially dangerous banner ads they contain just disappear into a little "S" icon. I LIKE THAT.
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #21
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILMA (06F)
6:00 AM FST January 27 2011
===================================
Warnings For Norfolk Islands
=================================
A CYCLONE WATCH IS IN FORCE FOR NORFOLK ISLAND
At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Wilma, Category Four (930 hPa) located at 24.4S 174.3E has 10 minute winds of 100 knots and is reported as moving west southwest at 11 knots.
Hurricane Force Winds
======================
20 NM from the center
Storm Force Winds
=================
30 NM from the center
Gale Force Winds
================
200 NM from the center in southeast quadrant, 100 NM in the northeastern quadrant, and 80 NM from the center elsewhere
Additional Information
=========================
Overall organization remains good past 24 hours. Eye becoming cloud filled but still discernible. Outflow good. WILMA steered by northerly deep layer mean regime. System lies under an upper diffluent region. CIMSS indicates decreasing shear along forecast path. Sea surface temperatures is around 27C.
Dvorak analysis based on MG eye surrounding by W, yielding DT=6.0 MET=5.5 PT=5.5. Final Dvorak T number based on DT.
Dvorak Intensity: T6.0/6.0/D0.5/24HRS.
Most global models move WILMA west southwest with a weakening trend.
Forecast and Intensity
============================
12 HRS: 25.7S 172.3E - 95 knots (CAT 4)
24 HRS: 27.6S 170.7E - 85 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 31.9S 170.8E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at around 2:30 AM UTC..
I must admit..I have been impressed with how it works so far... after the initial PITA part :)
Similar, but NoScript can allow a banner to show, and block the script that drops a cookie on your computer.
And that initial PITA part really turns some people off. That said... I use it at home - just haven't turned it on since cleaning vista off my computer and clean-installing Windows 7.
My 5 year old uses Windows, Linux, and Mac and has no problems with any of them. Kids are good like that.
You shouldn't have any issues switching between any of them really as long as you stick with the GUIs. If you're talking about potential hardware compatibility issues then from best to worst you have:
1. Mac: Mainly because they tell you exactly what you're going to use.
2. Windows: Pretty much all major vendors support windows.
3. Linux: It's gotten better, but it's still not that uncommon to hit snags.
If you're going with linux, go with a major distro with a wide user base. Right now, Ubuntu is pick of the litter. But keep in mind some thing will not work on linux, like netflix. You can always get around that by running a virtual instance of windows though. Wine can handle some programs well, and open office is a decent replacement for office.
For most operations like reading email and web surfing and the like, there is at most a very small learning curve. It's when you start digging deeper when things get harder (not as much going from OSX to Linux).
Tropical Cyclone Advice #23
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE BIANCA (12U)
6:00 AM WST January 27 2011
=======================================
At 5:00 am WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca, Category Three (965 hPa) located at 19.5S 115.5E, or 305 km north northeast of Exmouth and 195 km northwest of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 8 knots.
Hurricane Force Winds
===================
25 NM from the center
Storm Force Winds
================
40 NM from the center
Gale Force Winds
=================
80 NM from the center
Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS
Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca continues to develop as it moves to the west and parallel to the Pilbara coast. The cyclone is expected to continue intensifying during Thursday, but staying within the category three range.
DAMAGING WINDS with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are possible for a period between Roebourne and Onslow, extending to Exmouth during this morning.
If the cyclone moves closer to the coast, DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 160 kilometres per hour are possible between Mardie and Exmouth during Thursday morning and VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 200 kilometres per hour may be experienced between Onslow and Exmouth during Thursday.
Heavy rain is expected in coastal parts between Whim Creek and Onslow, extending to Exmouth during Thursday morning. Localised stream rises are likely but widespread flooding is not expected. Strong, squally winds and heavy rain are still possible between Wallal and Whim Creek.
If the cyclone moves closer to the coast, residents of Pilbara coastal communities west of Mardie including Onslow and Exmouth are warned of the potential for a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE. Tides may rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS COASTAL FLOODING.
Tropical Cyclone Warnings/Watch
================================
Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities from Roebourne to Coral Bay.
The Cyclone WARNING from Whim Creek to Roebourne has been cancelled.
Locally here in Pinellas the NWS did a survey and rated the micro burst just to my south in St. Petersburg at 90 mph! We actually saw a micro burst that strong a in August 2009, I had my folks all run into the closet because it had the roar of a tornado as it came in.
It's over.. should get to be about 40º It's dropped 10º since the sun started going down.
I don't know where you live, but its definitely a cold front, here in Tampa Bay highs were between 60 and 63 today, and now its 55 with a gusty north wind, its definitely a cold front lol
Hi Jed, I'm in New Smyrna Beach.
It was in the high seventies before the front came through and was in the mid sixties today, so that's cooler. Just not a really low cool. It's still about 62 degrees here at 6 p.m. so seems pretty mild for a winter cold front.
There one cell that has reflectivity of 60 DBZ with multiple lighting hits... Heavy snow convection, how weird.
Looks pretty well east of the coast on radar, doesn't it?
Actually its probably cause you've adjusted to the extremely cold weather we have had many times. The forecast low is 40 tonight for my area and a high of 59 tomorrow, which is a more normal January cold blast compared to what we have had before.
I have enough problems with town names and areas of states trying to figure out where people are... but just the street name.. forget it...I am really lost now.
Yea !!! Glad ya got that snow :) Enjoy
(floridian giggles and runs away)
Is that true Aqua...you've never been in a snow? I'm not real experienced with it, being from Ms, but it's has the most soothing and calming affect, for me anyway...lol..
Right...the getting out of school for kids is such a treat....I'm not so old that I cant remember those days :)
it sounds really great, a weather that I will probably never see. What it's snowed here in Jacksonville, I don't think that counts, as one inch will shut this city DOWN.
One inch only enough to make ya mad....
ok when you click on the "embed" tab, do not use the one that appears in the box, the one that says "iframe". Scroll down past that, there's some boxes underneath that you can click.
One of these boxes says "use old embed code?" and you click on that. Then the embed code will change to the old format, and you can use it.
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