Potentially historic winter storm poised to impact 100 million Americans
A huge and potentially historic winter storm is taking shape over the Southern Plains today. By the time the storm exits New England on Wednesday night, as many as 50 million Americans may see heavy snows of at least 6 inches or dangerous ice accumulations of 1/4" or more from the massive storm, and 100 million will be affected by the storm. A potent jet stream with strong winds will dive southwards over the central U.S. today, allowing a cold Arctic airmass to spill southwards out of Canada. In front of this cold air, a flow of very warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico will surge northwards, providing copious moisture to fuel snowfall amounts that will likely approach two feet across portions of Iowa and Illinois on Tuesday. The storm could be Chicago's biggest blizzard since January 1999, when a storm dumped 21.6" of snow. Accompanying the heavy snow on Tuesday will be strong winds gusting to 40 mph in Northern Illinois and Northwest Indiana, and a blizzard watch is posted for Chicago. Strong winds in Chicago are expected to generate 14 - 18 feet waves on Lake Michigan, with occasional waves up to 25 feet. A significant coastal flooding event is possible for Chicago, with beach erosion and flooding along Lake Shore Drive. Many major cities will likely receive over 8 inches of snow from the storm, including Kansas City, St. Louis, and Detroit. Perhaps of greater concern is the potential for a major ice storm along a swath from Northwest Oklahoma to Massachusetts. Widespread freezing rain is expected to bring over 1/4" of ice to many major cities, including St. Louis, Indianapolis, Columbus, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh. Some regions could see up to an inch of ice, and widespread power outages due to toppled power lines are likely for millions of people. Damages exceeding $1 billions are possible from this ice storm. In addition, the storm's powerful cold front will bring the potential for severe thunderstorms to the deep South. The NOAA Storm Prediction Center is giving Louisiana and surrounding states a "slight risk" of severe weather on Tuesday, and severe thunderstorms with damaging winds are likely Tuesday afternoon in this region.
Figure 1. Probability of receiving at least 1/4" of ice for the 24 hours ending at 7am EST on Wed Feb 2, 2011. Image credit: NOAA.
Very dangerous Tropical Cyclone Yasi headed for Australia's flooded Queensland
With February nearly upon us, the traditional peak of the Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season is here, and the waters surrounding Australia have been exceptionally active over the past week. We had the year's first two Category 4 tropical cyclones last week, Tropical Cyclone Wilma and Tropical Cyclone Bianca. Wilma passed over American Samoa as a strong tropical storm, and hit Tonga as a Category 3 storm, causing substantial damage to the islands, but no deaths or injuries. Wilma brushed New Zealand, bringing flooding and landslides to the North Island, and was the strongest tropical cyclone to affect that country in fourteen years, according to weatherwatch.co.nz. Tropical Cyclone Bianca skirted the west coast of Australia and dissipated before making landfall. Tropical Cyclone Anthony hit flood-ravaged Queensland, Australia, over the weekend, as a weak tropical storm with 40 - 50 mph winds. Fortunately, Anthony dropped only modest amounts of rain, and no new flooding disaster occurred in Queensland, which is struggling to recover from record floods. As reported in the latest Australian Bureau of Meteorology climate statement and flood summary, the past four months (September - December) have been the rainiest such period in Queensland's history, and the resulting flooding disaster has been Australia's most expensive natural disaster in history.
Queensland is in serious danger of renewed extreme flooding this week from Tropical Cyclone Yasi. Yasi has intensified to a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds, and is undergoing a period of rapid intensification that is expected to take it to Category 4 strength. Yasi is expected to hit Queensland on Wednesday, probably as a major Category 3 or stronger storm. In addition the storm's damaging winds and storm surge, Yasi will bring torrential rains. The GFS model is predicting that Yasi will dump 5 - 10 inches of rain over a large swath of Queensland, which would likely cause destructive flooding.
One positive note: the European Center model was remarkably accurate predicting the formation of Yasi over a week in advance, so Queensland has had plenty of time to prepare for the arrival of the storm.
Figure 3. Tropical Cyclone Yasi at 23:20 GMT on January 30, 2011. At the time, Yasi was a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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National Weather Service New Orleans la
432 am CST Monday Jan 31 2011
Long term...heading into the extended...overall the models are in
decent agreement with the weather features/pattern. That said there
are enough differences in the details which make this forecast very
difficult to discern thus confidence is quite low.
Wednesday and Wednesday night...this should be the quietest day of the week. The
cold front will be well into the Gulf by sunrise and much drier and
colder air will be moving in. Cooler air is actually an
understatement as h925 temperatures of -3 to -5 could be in place across
the northwestern half of the County Warning Area. Our Tuesday system will continue to lift out
embedded in the l/west trough while another wave digs in the backside.
This could set the stage for some interesting weather Thursday and Friday
especially if the colder air can move any further south.
Thursday through Friday...as the system continues to dig on the back side of
the elongated l/west trough over the Continental U.S. It will close off over the
Southern Plains. At the same time weak low pressure will begin to develop
in the Gulf with a actual surface low in the eastern Gulf south of
Pensacola. This is where the problems could arise. There will be
cold air in place...how cold is a good question as the European model (ecmwf) has now
shifted a little warmer and the GFS is much colder than it was 24
hours ago. As the surface low develops we will start to see moisture wrap
around at the same time the SW flow aloft will continue to pump in
some Pacific moisture. By Thursday night and into Friday the closed low over
the Southern Plains will begin to push east and move over the lower MS
valley. It as at this time when we could have enough forcing to
develop scattered to numerous rain showers. Also the track of the upper low along
with col ll temperatures could lead to the possibility of some light frozen
precipitation. We are right on the edge of all liquid or some mix and with
the model disagreements I will continue to hold onto all liquid but
this is something we need to watch and something we can focus more
on after Tuesday/S system.
Things should be much quieter as we head into the weekend. /Cab/
It needs to warm up so the crawfish will fatten up GR.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
451 AM CST MON JAN 31 2011
.DISCUSSION...
LOOK FOR ONE MORE RELATIVELY MILD DAY TODAY...WITH OUR OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NOW STALLED ALONG A CANTON...TO FAIRFIELD...HEARNE...TO
GIDDINGS LINE. THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY UP THROUGH THE SRN
HALF OF NORTH TX TODAY...WITH A HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE WRN RED RIVER VALLEY...TO NEAR AROUND 70 FROM LAMPASAS
OVER TO HEARNE. WE CONTINUED WITH A SREF/NAM BLEND WITH THIS OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AS THESE MODELS TEND TO HANDLE THESE SHALLOW
FRONTS THE BEST. STILL...HIGHS COULD BE A BIT WARMER IF OTHER
MODELS VERIFY ON A FASTER TIMING OF A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURRING
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...JUST SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS
SWRN HALF OF NORTH TX THIS MORNING.
FORECAST CHALLENGES CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY...AS OUR STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE GATHERS STRENGTH OVER
THE GREAT BASIN AND SW STATES THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS CAN NOW BE SEEN PER NATIONAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS MOVING
INTO THE LOWER 48 AND INTO AREAS FROM THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD INTO
THE DAKOTAS/MONTANA. THIS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED BY FORECASTERS/MODELS THE PAST 24 HOURS...AND WE HAVE
SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE FRONT TONIGHT BY A FEW HOURS WHICH HAS
RESULTED IN A FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST REGARDING PRECIPITATION
TYPES AND AMOUNTS...OCCURRING A BIT EARLIER ACROSS THE NW HALF OF
NORTH TX. WE EXPECT LARGE-SCALE ASCENT BOTH ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT TO RAMP UP THIS EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WITH HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY AREA OF SWRN NORTH TX...PER INSTABILITY...SHEAR...LIFT...
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SEEN ALOFT. THE AREA OF HEAVY QPF WILL
LIKELY START BEING UNDERCUT BY THE INITIAL SHALLOW NOSE OF THE
ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE NW COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT...THEN SPREAD SEWD
TO A PARIS...D/FW...COMANCHE LINE BY DAYBREAK. THUS CONVECTION
WILL BEGIN TO TRANSFORM OVER TO RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET WITH
ELEVATED THUNDER FULLY POSSIBLE. WE HAVE LEFT OUT THE THUNDER IN
THE COLD AIR FOR NOW TO KEEP AN ALREADY COMPLEX FORECAST FROM
GETTING EVEN MORE SO. SOME SNOW WILL LIKELY BE MIXING IN ACROSS NW
COUNTIES BY SUNRISE TUESDAY WITH THE FASTER TIMING OF THE COLD
AIR.
INITIAL AMOUNTS OF SNOW-SLEET/FREEZING RAIN COULD REACH TO AN
INCH/ONE TENTH OF INCH RESPECTIVELY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
NORTH TEXAS. CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF DEEPER COLD AIR ARRIVING AND
ACTUAL PRECIPITATION TYPE/AMOUNTS IS VERY DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME...AS
MODELS KEEP GETTING FASTER WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN. THIS IS
NOT UNUSUAL DUE TO THE DENSITY AND DEPTH OF THE ARCTIC ARRIVING
WHICH MODELS INITIALLY STRUGGLE WITH UNTIL THE LAST MINUTE IN MANY
CASES. FOR NOW...WE HAVE PUSH THE WINTER STORM WATCH SOUTHEAST TO
A BONHAM...D/FW...SOMERVELLE/GRANBURY...COMANCHE LINE WITH BEST
CONFIDENCE ALONG/NORTHWEST OF THIS LINE FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER
WEATHER ACCUMULATIONS. THIS MAY EVEN NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER
SOUTHEAST IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE AS THEY HAVE. BY AFTERNOON...
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN LIFTING THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HRS WITH A COMPLETE TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW OR SLEET AND
SNOW MOST AREAS...BUT ENDING QUICKLY BEFORE EVENING. ONLY COUNTIES
NOT ADVERTISED AT THIS TIME TO GO BELOW FREEZING BEFORE THE SYSTEM
LIFTS OUT ARE MILAM/ROBERTSON/AND LEON COUNTIES. A FEW SNOW
FLURRIES MAY REMAIN ACROSS THE NE HALF OF NORTH TX TUES NIGHT AS
TEMPS REALLY BEGIN BOTTOMING OUT. EITHER WAY...WE HAVE DECIDED TO
LET ANOTHER SET OF RUNS OCCUR LATER TODAY TO ALLOW FOR A BETTER
DECISION ON BETTER PLACEMENT ON TYPES AND DURATIONS FOR EXPECTED
WINTER WEATHER WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.
THE OTHER HAZARD TO CONTEND WITH WILL BE THE VERY GUSTY N/NW WINDS
LATE MON NIGHT-WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE
ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HR FOR THE AREA...WITH LIKELY WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES FOR THE NW 1/2-2/3 OF N TX TUES NIGHT/WED MORNING...AS
SUB-ZERO VALUES WILL LIKELY OCCUR...WITH ONLY SINGLE DIGIT WIND
CHILLS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. BEST TO PREPARE NOW AND TAKE CARE OF
ANY OUTDOOR PETS AND PLANTS...AS WELL AS INSULATING ANY EXPOSED
PLUMBING AND DRIPPING INDOOR PLUMBING TUES-THURS.
THE ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN WED-FRI MORNING...WITH ONLY A
SLOW MODIFICATION FRI AFTERNOON INTO SUPERBOWL WEEKEND...AS LOW
LEVEL W/SWLY FLOW OCCURS WITH ARCTIC HIGH CENTER PUSHING SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA AND LEE-SIDE PRESSURE FALLS. ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER
ENERGY DOES GATHER OVER THE SRN ROCKIES/SWRN STATES MID WEEK...THEN
LIFTS EWD ACROSS OUR AREA THURS NIGHT-FRI NIGHT WITH MODELS INDICATING
DIFFERENT SPEEDS AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. BEST MOISTURE WILL BE
IN THE MID LVLS ABOVE THE ARCTIC DOME WHICH WILL BE AS DEEP AS TO
750-800 MB...WHICH IS SEEN RARELY THIS FAR SOUTH IN LATITUDE. WITH
THE VERY DRY/FRIGID LOW LEVEL AIR...ANY SNOW THAT DEVELOPS AT THIS
TIME WOULD NOT APPEAR TO BE AS SIGNIFICANT... UNLESS AS NOTED BY
LAST FORECAST...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AMOUNT OF DEEP VERTICAL
MOTIONS ARE UNDERESTIMATED...THEN WE COULD SEE A MORE SIGNIFICANT
SNOW EVENT. FOR NOW...WE`LL KEEP IT ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND WAIT FOR
THIS FIRST WINTER STORM TO GET THROUGH THE AREA.
AS FOR SUPERBOWL WEEKEND...IT APPEARS RIGHT NOW IT WILL BE CHILLY
IN THE MORNINGS...BUT SEASONABLY COOL FOR GAME TIME WITH NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...AS NORTH TX WILL BE IN
BETWEEN SYSTEMS AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT...WE URGE THOSE COMING
IN FOR THE SUPERBOWL TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS
REGARDING NORTH TX WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND.
Science Daily (Jan. 28, 2011) — The temperatures of North Atlantic Ocean water flowing north into the Arctic Ocean adjacent to Greenland -- the warmest water in at least 2,000 years -- are likely related to the amplification of global warming in the Arctic, says a new international study involving the University of Colorado Boulder.
Warming North Atlantic Water Tied to Heating Arctic
The isolated outpost of Kuri Bay, in the Kimberley region of Western Australia, has recorded its wettest month on record.
The pearling community has had more than 1,240 millimetres of rain so far this month.
That tops the 1974 record.
The Bureau of Meteorology predicts Kuri Bay is now on track to beat the state record for the wettest January, recorded in 1917, near Broome.
Link
ABNORMALLY hot sea temperatures at Ningaloo Reef are bleaching the area’s coral, environmental officers say.
Ocean surface temperatures at the reef have been 3C higher than average since October and peaked at 29C in the past two weeks – the ‘trigger level’ for bleaching.
Link
my nose is turning red....
- Yasi is going to hit just south of Cairns , Australia with a population
- Central Cairns from Mt Whitfield looking east. Sheridan Street, the main street running east-west becomes the Captain Cook Highway leading to Port Douglas. The chemical storage tanks seen in the top right are in the suburb of Portsmith. The tall buildings to the left are mainly hotels, located in the central business district. The building with the curved roof roughly in the centre of the picture is the Cairns Convention Centre.
http://en.wikipedia.org/ wiki/ File:CairnsQueensland.jpgof 122,731 at the 2006 census. It is surrounded by mountains .
Tuesday: Snow likely and areas of blowing snow. Cloudy and cold, with a high near 6. Wind chill values between -16 and -26. Windy, with a north northwest wind between 25 and 30 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Tuesday Night: A 20 percent chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around -8. Wind chill values between -20 and -30. Windy, with a north wind between 15 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
Looks like most have been upgraded to our west and wsw. We will likely be upgraded this evening. Tomorrow and tomorrow night are when it's supposed to be the worst here.
Wow, I almost guessed Minnesota!
Greenland was named after Eric the Red, and there were never farmers and shepherders inhabiting greenland during the medieval periods.
Oh, wait a minute..."
Too true, mate. All the scientists missed that fact. Makes me wonder why we pay scientists anything at all.
Any theories to behind why this is occurring?
I'm not very educated on solar dynamics. I do know that grand minima are not predictable with our current knowledge. NASA had this solar cycle ramped up to 140 max smoothed sunspot number before this cycle began, and now they have had to cut all the way down to 58, and possibly even lower. Whether this is the beginning of a grand minimum or not remains to be seen, but something is definitely going on.
Scientists missed what fact, exactly?
And what scientists are you referring to?
I'm skimming threw some NASA data...good stuff! Still looking for the correlation between temperature variations here on earth with the max/min sun spot cycle. What would it be 1-2 degree Celsius?
I know that things like this happen somewhat "often" (in geologic terms) and are not necessarily a huge deal - especially considering how the altered greenhouse effect has changed the radiative balance by more than the solar cycle does.
Unfortunately studying how solar cycles work is much more difficult than studying something here on planet earth. We can't exactly send tons of probes into it, nor can we see everything that is going on. The most impressive thing really is that with our recent solar cycle oddities, the long term trend has seen minimal change.
We are going to have broken water mains, thousands of busted pipes, accidents because businesses are not turning off their sprinkler systems.
My concern is Tuesday. Events like this storm happens once every 20 yrs. So at the most, the NWS super-computers only have about 7 events like this in their data base.
The NWS Ft Worth, TX mets are going to have to forecast this event, the old fashioned way, which is VERY difficult. Snow/sleet/freezing rain events on this possible scale or magnitude occur very seldom.
Winter storm watch for
City of Toronto issued
..Major winter snowstorm Tuesday night and Wednesday..
This is an alert to the potential development of dangerous winter weather conditions in these regions. Monitor weather conditions..Listen for updated statements.
A major winter storm is developing over Texas and will track towards Southern Ontario Tuesday. The low is expected to track just south of the lower lakes Wednesday.
Light snow will begin in advance of this system tonight and Tuesday. However the heavier snow is forecast to begin Tuesday night and continue Wednesday morning. Potential widespread snowfall amounts of 20 to 30 cm are likely before the snow tapers off Wednesday afternoon.
In addition strong and gusty east winds will develop with the snow. This will cause local whiteout conditions in blowing snow. The east winds will also generate local snow squalls off Lake Ontario in advance of the main snow area which will give enhanced snow amounts to regions near the west end of Lake Ontario.
This will be the first Major winter storm of the season for the Toronto area, and the most significant storm of the season for many regions outside the traditional snow belts. The heavy snowfall and blowing snow will cause whiteout conditions making for extremely hazardous driving conditions. The public should be prepared to change plans accordingly to avoid travel during the storm. This storm has the potential to create near-paralyzing conditions.
Environment Canada continues to monitor this dangerous winter storm and will issue further watches and warnings as necessary.
what, no levees?
NO, things WILL be crazy. Correction, very crazy :O)!!
Psst, no levees!!
bord- emplyers need to tell their employees, to STAY HOME
shouldn't there already be a notice of school closing?
and how's the weather right now, bord?
Not sure why it's occurring; the most that can be said is that the sun does what the sun does. Predictions as to what it will do and when are based only on past statistics; there's no modelling or physics involved. It's not much more accurate than predicting that since the last five green cars that passed your house were doing at least 50 mph, the next one will, too.
At any rate, as Scott said in comment #35, the warming from current CO2 levels far outweighs any possible cooling effect from solar activity. Even if the sun were to go back to Maunder Minimum levels, the atmosphere and oceans would continue to warm--as evidenced by the fact that even now the planet is still warming despite the sun's relative lack of activity.
GFS precip type for Friday morning:
GFS snow depth for Friday afternoon (beyond NAM's forecast time):
This is actually untrue. Since 2002, the global temperature trend has been essentially flat in most data sets. Furthermore, it takes a little more than one solar cycle minimum (which occurs every 11 years) to make a very noticeable effect on the long-term trend. If we were to actually go into a Maunder-like minimum, we would then notice the effects, and it would be interesting to see how significant they are.
Using:
dF = 0.7 * d(TSI)/4 and
dT = λ*dF
and some quick rough calculations, you get:
1.5 W/m2 solar output change yielding roughly 0.14-0.31C change in global average temperature.
More along the lines of 0.1C. It takes prolonged fluctuations in solar activity to significantly affect global temperature.
SQUAWK!!!!!!!!!
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