U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Конвекција-преглед)

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acus01 kwns 261627 
swody1 
Storm Prediction Center ac 261625 


Day 1 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1025 am CST sun Feb 26 2017 


Valid 261630z - 271200z 


..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of 
northeast Texas... 


... 
Thunderstorms are expected to develop from central into northeast 
Texas this evening through tonight. Large hail is possible with the 
strongest activity. 


..northeast Texas... 
Morning water vapor loop shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough 
digging across Southern California. Weak mid-level height falls and 
strengthening southwesterly low-level winds ahead of this system 
over Texas will result in warm advection and lift, with scattered 
showers and thunderstorms forming later this afternoon and evening. 
Forecast soundings suggest that elevated cape values of up to 1500 
j/kg may develop, along with favorable deep layer shear for a few 
rotating storms. Hail will be the main threat from isolated 
stronger cells. At this time, the overall severe threat appears 
marginal. 


.Hart/leitman.. 02/26/2017 


$$ 

Mesoscale Discussion


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acus11 kwns 252325 
sels mesoscale discussion 
Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussion 252324 
mez000-maz000-nhz000-riz000-ctz000-nyz000-vtz000-260030- 


Mesoscale discussion 0214 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0524 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2017 


Areas affected...southeastern Vermont...southern New Hampshire...far southern 
ME...MA...eastern CT...and Rhode Island 


Concerning...severe potential...watch unlikely 


Valid 252324z - 260030z 


Probability of watch issuance...20 percent 


Summary...a watch downstream of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 40 is 
unlikely due to an unfavorable airmass. 


Discussion...radar imagery as of 2315z shows a bowing line of 
thunderstorms across the lower Hudson Valley of New York moving into the 
eastern part of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 40. These thunderstorms 
have recently (2244z) produced a measured severe wind gust of 69 mph 
at the Montgomery Airport in Orange County NY, along with some tree 
damage. As this convection continues eastward along a cold front 
into much of the remainder of New England, it is expected to quickly 
weaken due to a stable airmass. Southeasterly winds off the Atlantic 
across this region have prevented appreciable destabilization into 
much of Massachusetts/CT/RI/VT/NH, with rap mesoanalysis suggesting MUCAPE of 
100 j/kg or less downstream of the ongoing convection. While a very 
isolated strong to damaging wind threat may persist slightly to the 
east of the current Severe Thunderstorm Watch, downstream watch 
issuance is unlikely due to the hostile thermodynamic environment. 


.Gleason/guyer.. 02/25/2017 


..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product... 


Attention...WFO...gyx...box...btv...okx...aly... 


Latitude...Lon 42797276 43677238 43627091 43257041 42537060 41367116 
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